Font ResizeAt stake is control of the House of Representatives, which swung over to the Democrats by a single seat in the pay-raise-outrage election two years ago that sent 24 incumbent lawmakers home in defeat.
The balance of power in the state Senate, currently 29-21 in favor of the Republicans, is not likely to see significant change.
Five weeks before an election, the campaign map is taking shape in a year in which legislative candidates have to compete with the presidential contest for voters' attention.
Ninety-one representatives and four senators have no fall opponent, and 25 senators do not face voters this year. Twenty-two House seats and seven in the Senate are opening up due to retirements. That leaves 90 representatives and 14 senators with opposition in the Nov. 4 election, although in a few cases the opponents are third-party longshots.
Lately, economic concerns have rocketed to the top of voters' minds, said James Lee with Susquehanna Polling and Research, a Republican opinion research firm.
"Out in central and western Pennsylvania, our polling at the presidential level is showing that John McCain is winning the southwest and the 'T' by even bigger margins than George Bush won them four years
On the other hand, he said, it looks as if Barack Obama might surpass John Kerry's 2004 totals in Philadelphia and its suburbs, the state's mother lode of voters. In the last presidential election, Kerry won Philadelphia and three of the four suburban counties.
Rick Bloomingdale, secretary-treasurer of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, said this year's legislative races are proving difficult to handicap.
"This is just such an odd election," he said late last week. "Normally we get a pretty good read by now, but man, the presidential race and the economy is just throwing such volatility into everything."
House Democrats are focusing their attention on the populous counties around Philadelphia, hoping to preserve or expand their 102-101 margin by knocking off a few incumbents or picking up vacant seats in the region that has recently propelled Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey to comfortable victories.
"If it's in southeast Pennsylvania, it's in play," said Rep. Todd Eachus of Luzerne County, who is heading the House Democrats' campaign effort. "And it's one of those situations where every one of these candidates are doing the hard work: knocking on doors, focusing on the field operation."
Democrats have set their sights on seats opened by the retirements of Republican state Reps. Art Hershey and Carole Rubley of Chester County, David Steil of Bucks County, George Kenney of Philadelphia and Ron Raymond of Delaware County—along with some suburban districts held by GOP freshmen.
Republicans are hardly conceding the southeast—they consider Democratic Reps. Rick Taylor of Montgomery County, Barbara McIlvaine Smith of Chester County and Chris King of Bucks County to be beatable.
"There's no ground we're giving up here," said Rep. Mike Turzai, R-Allegheny, his caucus' chief campaign strategist. "Every Republican seat that we presently hold we are going to continue to hold."
They also see a line of attack against Democrats along Interstate 80 who supported the plan to toll that interstate, but for the GOP to reclaim the House majority they will probably need to make it happen in the western part of the state.
Republicans are going after a pair of Johnstown area districts being vacated by the retirements of Democratic Reps. Tom Yewcic and Ed Wojnaroski. They also are pumping resources into the Westmoreland County district being vacated by a retiring Democrat, Rep. Tom Tangretti, and believe House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese, D-Greene, can be unseated by Greg Hopkins, who gave him a scare two years ago.
"I do not think beating Bill DeWeese is a longshot," Turzai said. "It think it's tailor-made for us."
DeWeese is determined to disprove anyone who may have already written his political obituary.
"I've been knocking on doors every day except Sunday when not in voting session since Jan. 4," DeWeese said. "There may have been four exceptions."
Democrats are touting their agenda—closely tied to Rendell—to voters who want to see action on energy independence, health coverage for the uninsured and more spending on transportation and utility infrastructure.
"If the Republicans think that we've gotten this close on access to affordable health care and they can just take a walk on it and pay rich doctors and hospitals money and not take care of people who are struggling in this economy, let me tell you, that's not what people want us to do," said Eachus, the House Democratic campaign chairman.
Republicans are running on their efforts to block state spending proposals and on a pledge to continue reform—a timely topic as the state attorney general investigates the illegal use of public money and employees for legislative campaigns.
"We're not in charge of the agenda, the House Democrats are," Turzai said. "They are moving a far-left agenda, a high spending agenda, and on a macro level, we are making the case that we will bring fiscal responsibility and integrity back to Harrisburg."
So far a dozen people tied to the House Democratic caucus have been arrested. No additional charges are expected by Election Day, but the ongoing probe has cast a shadow over the entire Legislature.
The Republicans have escaped charges, at least so far, but many observers say voters tend to consider that investigation—and the passed-then-repealed 2006 pay raise—as more of a Harrisburg issue than something tied to a particular party.
Polls suggest the need for improved integrity in state government, often loosely referred to as "reform," tends to resonate more strongly with voters in western Pennsylvania, where blue-collar union Democrats often hold fairly conservative positions on such issues as guns or abortion.
"The western Democrats in Pennsylvania are conservative in nature—Reagan Democrats," said Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, R-Jefferson. "So I see them bringing John McCain home in those districts which ultimately will help us there."
The Senate's most hotly contested battle is in a Westmoreland County district being relinquished by Republican freshman Sen. Bob Regola. Regola dropped his re-election bid in August after being acquitted of criminal charges related to a teen neighbor's 2006 shooting death.
Another race to watch is in Beaver County, where the wife of retiring Democratic Sen. Gerald LaValle is awaiting trial for allegedly stealing from a nonprofit agency funded by state grants and charities.
Facing longer odds are Democratic efforts to beat incumbent Sens. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, and James Rhoades, R-Schuylkill—or Republican hopes of taking the Montgomery County district being vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Connie Williams.
